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News for: Bond Markets
Showing 289 - 312 of 372 results
Jul 11, 2025 7:02 AM — Bond Markets
Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly
The article discusses how the weekly jobless claims data was the only relevant economic report for the week, with numbers showing no cracks in the labor market. Despite Continuing Claims remaining elevated, they stayed below long term highs from 3 weeks ago. This resulted in the bond market moving into slightly weaker territory.
Jul 10, 2025 3:01 PM — Bond Markets
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Bonds lost a small amount of ground today but are holding steady on the week. Fed speakers reiterated dovish messages, and the Treasury auction wasn't especially strong. MBS and 10yr yields saw some fluctuations throughout the day, with modest changes at the close.
Jul 9, 2025 3:03 PM — Bond Markets
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Bond traders demonstrated clear foresight by starting buying early in the week, leading to consistent buying and improvement in 10yr Treasury yields and MBS. The market saw a classic correction to June's rally followed by a correction of that correction, with events like the 10yr Treasury auction and Fed Minutes having varying impacts throughout the week.
Jul 8, 2025 2:05 PM — Bond Markets
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day, showing a potential trend reversal. Despite some selling overnight and early in the day, there was a very slight recovery with very low volatility.
Jul 8, 2025 8:06 AM — Bond Markets
Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose
Stocks and bonds are responding to new developments on the tariff front, with letters sent to trade partners announcing new tariff rates effective August 1st. Despite general tariff fatigue, the market was paying attention due to the formal nature of the announcements. While stocks were falling, bonds were holding steady, and vice versa.
Jul 8, 2025 4:02 AM — Bond Markets
Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week
After a rally reversal following last week's jobs report, the bond market is facing a data-free week with little movement from last Thursday's close. Thursday saw heavy selling, potentially ending the rally trend from late June. The most anticipated event on the horizon is next week's CPI data, which will likely determine the direction of trading levels and trends.
Jul 7, 2025 2:04 PM — Bond Markets
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds started the day weaker and continued to lose ground in the morning. After new tariff announcements caused selling in stocks, there was some initial buying in bonds, but not for long. Tariffs have proven to be a double-edged sword for bonds. Today's weakness added to a multi-day correction that began last Wednesday. Buyers may remain hesitant until more of the week's Treasury auction cycle ta... more
Jul 3, 2025 1:00 PM — Bond Markets
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
The strong jobs report led to bond sellers pushing the yield curve higher, especially at the short end, but MBS didn't experience as much damage. The MBS market remained relatively stable despite uncertainties about Treasury auctions and the recent spending bill.
Jul 3, 2025 7:01 AM — Bond Markets
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
The jobs report for this morning showed stronger results than expected, leading to bond market weakness. The drop in unemployment also contributed to the sell-off. Despite some 'yeah buts' in the data, there was nothing significant enough to suggest lower yields. Revisions have been more aligned with the consensus, which could potentially benefit the bond market in the future.
Jul 2, 2025 2:00 PM — Bond Markets
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The bond market is anticipating a lower NFP number despite the consensus of 110k. The ADP employment report showed a significant miss, causing initial bond market rally that was not sustained. Overall, there was minimal weakness with bonds holding steady on the eve of high-consequence data release.
Jul 2, 2025 7:00 AM — Bond Markets
Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
The ADP employment report came out much weaker than expected, prompting a potential rally on the bond market. However, global bond markets are facing pressure from a rout in UK debt and ADP's track record in predicting NFP is hit or miss.
Jul 1, 2025 2:00 PM — Bond Markets
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
Bonds started the day in line with yesterday's levels but were impacted by data releases like the JOLTS report and Senate's spending bill passage. Despite some volatility, bonds remained open-minded ahead of the upcoming jobs report and CPI release. Throughout the day, there was some back and forth movement in bond prices and yields.
Jul 1, 2025 8:00 AM — Bond Markets
AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce
Tuesday's economic data included S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. While PMI data was slightly stronger than expected, job openings data showed a significant bounce, suggesting a leveling off after a rapid decline. This led to MBS moving back to yesterday's lows and yields near yesterday's highs.
Jun 30, 2025 3:01 PM — Bond Markets
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
On quarter-end trading, bond buying in the afternoon resulted in yields bottoming out just before the NYSE close. Month-end buying picked up later, leading to a strong move into the close with MBS up almost a quarter point and 10yr down 4.8bps.
Jun 28, 2025 8:00 AM — Bond Markets
Minimal Impact From PCE Data
Bonds were slightly weaker at the start of the final trading day of the week, but this was not due to the morning's PCE data. The PCE data did not cause much of a stir, despite core monthly inflation being slightly higher than forecast. Lower income and spending offset the higher inflation. Bonds improved slightly, but headlines about the Senate's push to approve its version of the spending bill h... more
Jun 28, 2025 5:02 AM — Bond Markets
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
Bonds gave up their gains late in the day after a decent recovery, likely due to Senate moving closer to a spending bill vote and Trump declaring an end to trade negotiations with Canada, potentially implying inflation pressure. The week overall saw lower Fed Funds Rate expectations, which will be further influenced by key economic reports in the following weeks.
Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM — Bond Markets
The Trend is Friendly For Now
Bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past few days, with today being a confirmation of that shift. Despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month, there was solid 7yr Treasury auction today. The data wasn't a huge factor in today's improvement, but there are underlying reasons for the vigor in bonds.
Jun 26, 2025 7:00 AM — Bond Markets
Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Despite a busy economic calendar with significant reports such as Durable Goods and GDP, trading volume fell short compared to past sessions. Mixed signals in the data have led to a neutral stance for the day.
Jun 25, 2025 2:00 PM — Bond Markets
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Bond market experienced light selling pressure initially but bond buyers were able to regain control in the afternoon. The Fed's announcement of changes to banking rules also provided some support to the market. Yields closed at their lowest levels since May 7th.
Jun 25, 2025 8:00 AM — Bond Markets
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are pausing today after reaching the best levels in more than a month. The event calendar is not very impactful, with the main source of potential volatility being the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.
Jun 24, 2025 2:00 PM — Bond Markets
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
The morning commentary highlighted Jerome Powell's relatively dovish tone in congressional testimony, which provided hope for low rates. Another important development was the labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index, indicating challenging labor market conditions post-covid lockdowns. Bonds rallied early and closed with incremental gains. MBS were up 9 ticks and 10yr down 5.3bps.
Jun 23, 2025 8:00 AM — Bond Markets
Bonds Don't Always React to War Like You'd Expect
Long-time bond watchers generally believe that war leads to increased global economic uncertainty, driving safe-haven demand for US Treasuries and helping rates. However, the recent Russia/Ukraine conflict resulted in a paradoxical spike in rates due to inflation implications. Despite anticipation of a similar risk with oil prices over the weekend, there was no significant reaction in bonds. As th... more
Jun 21, 2025 5:02 AM — Bond Markets
Unofficial 4 Day Weekend
Trading sessions without many participants, like the Friday after Thanksgiving, are often uneventful with markets trading in narrow ranges. Even on holidays like Juneteenth, the market continues to trade within the same old range in a predictable pattern.
Jun 18, 2025 3:00 PM — Bond Markets
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot was released with minimal impact on the bond market initially. However, after Fed Chair Powell suggested waiting a couple of months to make a decision, there was a slight increase in bond yields. Overall, the Fed managed to maintain market apathy despite the dot plot release.
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